There’s a lot in the news to suggest the breakup of a Russian potash cartel last July may result in significant crop input savings for farmers. Thomson Reuters suggests potash prices are poised to drop 20% and that Malaysian and Indonesian buyers, heavily dependent on potash for palm oil production, continue to wait for cues from China or India. Further hints point to Chinese prices, which usually set the market low, as potentially $320 a tonne. A Globe and Mail article quotes other dire predictions from Robert Winslow, a National Bank Financial analyst, that bumper corn and soybean crops will force potash prices to fall regardless of the activities of any oligopoly. But the same article also presents the position of Agrium chief executive Michael Wilson, who feels the market is overreacting to the news and isn’t assuming any specific price drop values.